Sterling Declined as Lower Inflation

16 Ekim 2024

Sterling Declined as Lower Inflation Heightens Expectations for Bank of England Rate Cuts

Today’s markets analysis on behalf of George Pavel General Manager at Capex.com Middle East

The pound declined following the release of lower-than-expected inflation data, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 1.7%, its lowest level since April 2021 and below the BoE’s target of 2%. This drop, combined with slower wage growth, has heightened expectations that the central bank will adopt a more dovish stance at its upcoming meeting on November 7.

As interest rates are expected to decrease, the pound has become less attractive compared to the dollar, which is nearing two-month highs. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected inflation and a resilient U.S. economy have led market participants to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate cuts, consequently further strengthening the greenback. Furthermore, a potential re-election of Trump could create inflationary pressures due to aggressive trade policies, compelling the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period.

Attention now turns to the UK’s upcoming retail sales data. If the anticipated 0.3% contraction is confirmed, it could exacerbate cautious sentiment towards the pound, reinforcing expectations of interest rate cuts and keeping the Sterling under pressure.

 

Zaid Barem / YMM