Gold market comment on behalf of Ahmad Assiri

29 December 2025

Today’s market analysis on behalf of Ahmad Assiri Research Strategist at Pepperstone

With the holiday period now behind us, metals have further proven their bullish structure firmly intact. Gold is retesting the $4500 level as a consolidation zone, suggesting the market is leaning toward digesting gains.

Silver, meanwhile, continues to trade within a structurally tight supply setup. After briefly pushing well above the $80 mark, prices have since retreated below that threshold, but the broader trend remains constructive for speculation flows.

The drivers for both gold and silver remain largely unchanged, rooted in steady geopolitical and policy related risks that are underpinning demand for metals. On the macro front, expectations for a softer US dollar continue to provide support. Markets are increasingly comfortable with the view that the Federal Reserve may continue the easing cycle later in the new year, particularly if further cooling emerges in the US labour market. A lower rate environment, combined with a weaker dollar bias, naturally enhances the relative appeal of assets such as gold and silver.

Additionally, US China relations remain outwardly calm, yet tensions around critical minerals persist beneath the surface. This unresolved structural fault lines continues to support metals demand without attracting excessive political attention as for now.

Gold’s behavior around $4500 is emblematic of this environment. Price action has been characterised by advances followed by consolidation rather than reversals. This points to flows driven by likely longer term positioning, rather than short term speculative excess.

Silver, by contrast, is amplifying these same macro forces through its own supply demand constraints. Tight physical conditions and strong speculative participation have exaggerated price swings, explaining both the sharp move above $80 and the subsequent pullback.
From a trading perspective, silver remains one of the most compelling speculative markets at present. However, for long term investors, signs of worries are becoming more visible, particularly in inflated pricing that increasingly reflects speculative enthusiasm of what’s now around 4.5 trillion dollar market more than double in the past 12 months.

As markets move beyond the holiday period into the new year, both gold and silver appear to remain supported, with gold consolidating strength and silver retaining a structurally bullish, albeit increasingly volatile, profile.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm