Bitcoin at a critical juncture – Can the long-term uptrend be sustained?

4 Ağustos 2025

Written by Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com

Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal juncture, shaped not only by technical dynamics but also by macroeconomic factors. Upcoming shifts in economic data, institutional capital flows, and geopolitical tensions could determine the direction of the world’s largest digital asset in the months ahead.

After experiencing six consecutive sessions of correction, Bitcoin has recently rebounded from a key technical support level around $112,000. This recovery suggests that dip-buying interest remains active, reflecting a positive medium- to long-term outlook among investors.

However, the recent pullback also signals that Bitcoin currently lacks a strong short-term catalyst to sustain bullish momentum—especially as ETF inflows begin to stall.

Last week, the market was met with a wave of underwhelming U.S. labor market data. The Non-Farm Payroll report showed job growth falling well short of expectations, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by just 0.3%. Together, these data points indicate a slowing recovery in the labor market.

This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause its tightening cycle and potentially pivot toward a more accommodative stance in the coming months. Such a shift would be a significant tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin, which are highly sensitive to interest rate policy and system liquidity.

In parallel with macroeconomic developments, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for alternative assets. Rising instability in the Middle East, the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict, and China’s increasingly assertive stance on trade and critical supply chains have all contributed to a global flight to assets not controlled by sovereign governments. In this context, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a credible hedge, alongside traditional safe havens like gold.

While Bitcoin has yet to replace gold’s role, it is becoming an essential part of a diversified defensive strategy—particularly in an uncertain global economic environment.

Perhaps the clearest evidence of this shift is the fact that, according to MarketWatch, total inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $50 billion by mid-July 2025. This milestone marks a profound change in institutional attitudes toward Bitcoin. The digital currency is gradually becoming a mainstream asset class within the global financial system.

Throughout June and July, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remained strong and steady, signaling robust institutional confidence. However, early August saw the emergence of mild net outflows—a short-term warning sign that the market may be growing more cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the outlook for ETF capital flows will likely depend on the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Should the central bank send clear signals about an upcoming rate-cutting cycle, a fresh wave of institutional capital could be unleashed—potentially fueling a Bitcoin rally in Q4.

On-chain data further supports a structurally healthier market than in previous bull cycles. Long-term holder (HODLer) metrics continue to rise, while leverage ratios are gradually declining. This suggests a transition from speculative trading to value-driven accumulation.

This behavioral shift indicates that today’s investors are more resilient and have a positive medium-term outlook, which helps shield the market from abrupt panic-driven selloffs.

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be supported by several key factors that could sustain its long-term uptrend—including a potential shift in monetary policy, continued institutional participation, and a stable market structure. That said, short-term correction risks remain, particularly if upcoming economic data fail to provide the clarity needed to attract renewed capital inflows.

Even so, any near-term pullback should be considered a healthy and necessary part of Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory, as long as the psychological support level of $100,000 remains intact.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm