Bitcoin is in a temporary equilibrium,…

8 Eylül 2025

Bitcoin Is In A Temporary Equilibrium, Awaiting A New Catalyst Before Shaping Its Next Trend

Written by Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com

Bitcoin has paused its decline from mid-August and is currently base-building around $110,000. This “drop-and-pause” pattern typically emerges when selling pressure has cooled while fundamental buyers tentatively re-enter at price zones deemed reasonable on a risk–reward basis. At present levels, the next leg for price will hinge primarily on the U.S. monetary policy pivot and the durability of flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

On the data front, the latest NFP report recorded 22,000 new jobs—well below the 75,000 consensus and the 79,000 in the prior month—signaling a cooling labor market. This increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cut cycle in the coming months, a backdrop that is generally supportive for liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. That said, a sizable portion of this easing expectation has already been priced in over recent sessions, so the immediate positive reaction has been more muted.

In the near term, this week’s CPI and PPI releases will be key catalysts. Softer inflation would reinforce the easing narrative, pulling down real yields and the U.S. dollar, thereby improving risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin. Conversely, hotter-than-expected prints could lift yields and bolster the dollar, raising the opportunity cost of holding risk assets and adding short-term pressure to crypto markets.

The geopolitical landscape is an important variable because it indirectly shapes inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Flashpoints in the Middle East, risks to supply chains and maritime shipping routes, or shifts in U.S. trade and tariff policy can all affect energy prices and input costs, thereby altering inflation expectations and the interest-rate path. In an escalation scenario, capital tends to seek safe havens; when tensions ease, risk assets—including Bitcoin—typically find firmer support.

Cross-asset dynamics also tell an important story: gold hovering near record highs underscores robust macro hedging demand. In periods of uncertainty, Bitcoin is sometimes viewed as an alternative asset, but its higher volatility makes it more sensitive to data and headline shocks. For Bitcoin’s advance to be durable, the market still needs a clear global-liquidity backstop—namely easier financial conditions alongside genuine spot inflows.

Net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed versus last month—an improvement in sentiment. However, a more sustainable uptrend would require a string of consecutive net-inflow days rather than isolated bright spots. The recent drawdown can be viewed as profit-taking; encouragingly, any rebound accompanied by stronger spot volumes and a return of derivatives funding to neutral would suggest that momentum is being driven by real money rather than short-term leverage. In parallel, net growth in stablecoin supply—a proxy for “ready liquidity”—would be an early indicator of a more resilient recovery.

Over the medium term, Bitcoin’s outlook remains constructive if a genuine monetary-easing cycle materializes and ETFs continue to attract institutional capital. In the short term, the market is awaiting a fresh catalyst: investor reactions to upcoming inflation data, moves in the dollar and yields, and the pace of ETF flows will determine whether Bitcoin breaks out of its current sideways phase into a new uptrend—or needs to retreat further before attempting another advance.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm