Bitcoin holds ground as Fed easing fuels risk…

22 September 2025

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Bitcoin corrected slightly by 0.1% after yesterday’s gains that pushed prices to the highest levels in a month, near $118,000.

The upward momentum has been reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s shift toward easier policy and by a futures market tilted to the long side, where bears have so far failed to force another wave of bull liquidations during attempts to cap the rally. With the Fed delivering a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday and indicating more reductions to come, risk appetite has extended into digital assets fuelling the bull run.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is now an 80% probability of an additional 50-basis-point cumulative cut before year end, reinforcing the bullish hypotheses for cryptocurrencies.

Rising risk appetite pushed the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 to simultaneous record highs for the first time since 2021. The cuts are non-recessionary in nature, which helped maintain optimism, though concerns about stretched valuations in technology stocks remain, according to an analyst from SentimenTrader and cited by Bloomberg.

Crypto markets have mirrored this optimism. According to Coinglass, bitcoin futures showed bulls reclaiming control for the first time since Wednesday on the four-hour time frame of long / short ratio, with only mild long liquidations. This pattern opens the door to further upside, with spot bitcoin ETFs also drawing fresh inflows on Thursday after recording outflows on Wednesday, according to Soso Value.”

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. reinforced this view, assigning a 70% probability to new highs based on three factors. He pointed to balanced technical conditions reflected in a near-zero Short-Term Holder MVRV Z-Score, a contango structure in futures that signals strong demand, and ongoing institutional inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. Adler acknowledged the potential for a short-term dip to $114,000 to clear liquidity but argued that the probability of a breakout to fresh highs remains dominant given the strength of these supports.

Beyond monetary policy and flows, the adoption side of the market is also seeing developments. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a request from Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE to streamline the process for listing exchange-traded products backed by physical commodities such as bitcoin and gold. The new framework, which introduces generic listing standards and reduces disclosure time, is expected to accelerate the pipeline of crypto-related products. For bitcoin, this regulatory shift could amplify institutional access and deepen liquidity over the medium term.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm