Gold relatively steady as markets brace for Fed decision

9 December 2025

Today’s markets analysis on behalf of Daniel Takieddine Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group ‘

Gold was near levels seen during the last few days, as investors remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, a potential catalyst for bullion’s next directional move. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected, market focus is also on the updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone. A hawkish shift in the 2026 policy path could weigh on gold, whereas dovish guidance or softer language would likely reinforce the metal’s upside. Traders now assign an 89% probability to a Fed cut tomorrow, though expectations for next year are less certain.

At the same time, the metal remains underpinned by a dense geopolitical backdrop. Tensions in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe, as well as rising friction between China and Japan, continue to support gold’s demand. Structural demand also remains solid, with the People’s Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month.

ETF flows paint a similarly supportive picture. Gold ETFs registered inflows of nearly 12 tonnes last week, with all major regions contributing and North America leading with 8.8 tonnes.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm