Gold near multi-month lows as markets reassess rates and geopolitical risks

16 July 2026

Market comment on behalf of Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals ‘

Gold remained under some pressure, but stayed in a range as the US dollar and Treasury yields stabilized following two sessions of declines. While softer-than-expected US inflation data eased Federal Reserve tightening bets and initially supported bullion by weighing on the dollar and bond yields, that momentum has faded as yields recovered slightly. At the same time, markets still expect one rate hike this year, which could continue to weigh on the metal.

Attention now turns to the latest US jobless claims data, which could provide further insight into labour market conditions and influence expectations for the Fed’s policy path. At the same time, developments in the Middle East remain a key source of uncertainty. Any renewed escalation could drive oil prices higher, reinforce inflation concerns, and strengthen rate hike expectations, potentially weighing on gold. Conversely, signs of easing geopolitical tensions could support a softer interest rate outlook and improve sentiment toward bullion.

Over the longer term, continued central bank purchases remain an important structural pillar for the gold market. Persistent official sector demand could help limit downside risks and provide a foundation for a more sustained recovery once macroeconomic conditions become more supportive.