Impact of the elections in France: Euro rises

1 Temmuz 2024

Today’s market analysis on behalf of Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo – Market Analyst Latam at xs.com

On Sunday, the political landscape in France underwent a significant shift following the first round of the snap elections. The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, emerged as the party with the most votes. While this result was striking, it didn’t provide a definitive outcome due to the complex political alliances that might form before the second round of voting. The political uncertainty has left markets and analysts in a state of anxious anticipation.

In immediate response to these preliminary results, the euro saw a notable increase, rising by more than 0.20% against the US dollar, reaching around 1.0730 at the opening of the Asian trading session on Monday. This rise is attributed to market relief, which had feared a more unfavorable outcome. Despite the RN not securing an outright majority in the projected seats, this relief was short-lived as the potential for new alliances keeps investors on edge.

Market concerns extend beyond the initial rise in the euro. The unexpected strength of the RN and the second position of the left-wing alliance have caused unease among investors due to their promises of significant increases in public spending in a country already burdened with high debt. These proposals have generated tensions, and the European Union has hinted at possible disciplinary measures to manage France’s finances. The volatility and fear of unchecked fiscal spending could profoundly affect the region’s economic stability.

This uncertainty’s effects were also seen in other financial markets. The spread between French and German bonds reached its highest point since 2012, and the CAC 40 index fell by 6.90%. As European bond and stock markets resumed trading on Monday, attention is focused on how they will respond. Initially, markets showed slight calm due to the moderation of some of RN’s radical policies. However, the upcoming second round of elections has reignited investor nerves, who are still trying to understand how RN’s spending plans will be funded.

In conclusion, the first round of the snap elections in France has created a wave of political and economic uncertainty that has shaken the markets. The euro’s reaction and movements in bond and stock markets reflect the anxiety and lack of clarity about the country’s political future. The second round will be crucial for defining France’s political direction and its economic stability within the European context. Investors and analysts will closely watch how alliances develop and impact the French and euro economies.