Bitcoin above $114K

Bitcoin Above $114K: Uptober Optimism Balances Government Shutdown Fears!

Written by: Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com – MENA

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a delicate phase marked by a mix of seasonal optimism and economic caution, as Bitcoin surpassed the $114,000 level on Monday after having retreated to $108,000 at the end of the previous week. This rebound reflects a positive but clearly cautious investor sentiment, especially with the approach of October—known in crypto circles as “Uptober,” a month historically associated with strong rallies. While such seasonal patterns cannot be relied upon as a guarantee, they bolster trader psychology and encourage proactive repositioning in the market, which explains Bitcoin’s ability to maintain gains despite a cloudy global economic outlook.

In my view, technical data confirm this volatile mood. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped sharply from 60.7 to 34.6, signaling intense selling pressure that has since eased. Such levels are typically interpreted as signs of seller exhaustion and the potential for stabilization or a short-term upward reversal, which has already begun to materialize in recent price action. From my perspective, this rapid shift in technical indicators suggests that the market may be forming a new support base, but breaking through higher resistance levels remains necessary to confirm the start of a longer-term bullish wave.

This improvement is not limited to the spot market; it has extended to the perpetual futures market as well. Open interest climbed from $42.8 billion to $43.6 billion, indicating increased investor appetite for risk. Deribit shares jumped 13%, while Hyperliquid’s long-buying bias rose to 57% from 36% last week. These metrics show that both institutional and retail investors have begun taking optimistic positions, though without reckless aggression. I believe these moves could represent the early stages of strong position-building in anticipation of October surprises, but they also demand close monitoring of liquidity flows to avoid falling into the trap of short-lived rallies.

Despite these recovery signals, caution still defines the current phase. The options market, which often reflects the true investor sentiment toward risk, continues to display hesitation, meaning the bet on a sustained rally has yet to become a broad conviction. This hesitation is understandable given the economic uncertainty in the United States, where expectations of a potential government shutdown are rising and could delay the release of the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Such data are key to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, and any delay or disruption could fuel greater volatility across markets, including Bitcoin.

Yet despite these risks, U.S. financial markets, including Wall Street, appear relatively stable, a steadiness that spills over into cryptocurrencies. Investors remain “relatively unfazed” despite mounting shutdown concerns. To me, this calm reflects a growing belief that any government disruptions will be short-lived or that the Federal Reserve will remain ready to intervene if needed. This conviction strengthens Bitcoin’s ability to absorb immediate shocks, though it does not rule out sharp swings if the jobs data surprises or are delayed.

In the short term, the $115,000 level remains a critical psychological and technical barrier. A breakout and sustained four-hour close above this ceiling would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend and open the door to targeting higher levels that could exceed $120,000 if supported by strong inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Institutional participation through these funds will remain the key factor in setting the market’s direction over the coming weeks, particularly as Uptober historically attracts fresh liquidity and increases demand momentum.

On a medium-term horizon, October carries more than just seasonal optimism. History shows that this month often witnesses shifts in monetary policy or economic surprises that drive investors toward alternative hedging assets, making Bitcoin a strong candidate to benefit from turbulence in equity or bond markets. Nevertheless, sustained upward movement requires more than psychological factors; it must be supported by economic data that enhance risk appetite and confirm that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

For these reasons, I believe Bitcoin stands at a crossroads of strong growth opportunities and risks that cannot be ignored. The anticipated volatility over the next two weeks may present opportunities for investors who can read the market well, but it also warns against chasing rallies without disciplined risk management strategies. Uptober may indeed bring historic gains, but the success of these expectations will depend on a combination of technical factors, institutional flows, and a calm U.S. political landscape. Until this picture becomes clearer, cautious optimism remains the most prudent approach for anyone watching the next move of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.