Bitcoin faces macroeconomic pressure

16 Aralık 2025

Bitcoin faces macroeconomic pressure in a contained risk environment

Written by Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Bitcoin recorded another correction at the start of the week, reflecting a more
cautious investor environment. The cryptocurrency fell 1.3% on Tuesday to around
$87,095, after touching a low of $85,288, its weakest level in two weeks. This move
took place amid subdued risk appetite and additional pressure from the global
technology sector, which has shown signs of consolidation following recent gains.

Bitcoin’s pullback occurred despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, a move
that typically supports higher-risk assets. However, the market had largely priced in
this decision, limiting its positive impact. Instead, investors reduced exposure to
speculative assets ahead of key U.S. economic data releases.

On the macroeconomic front, employment data delivered mixed signals. In
November, 64,000 jobs were added, exceeding expectations of 45,000 and initially
suggesting some resilience in the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, this positive figure
was overshadowed by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, its highest level
since September 2021, reinforcing the perception of a gradual cooling in the labor
market.

In addition, revisions to prior figures generated further concern. October payrolls
were revised to a decline of 105,000 jobs, indicating a deeper deterioration than
initially estimated. The broader measure of unemployment, which includes
underemployed and discouraged workers, climbed to 8.7%, its highest level since
August 2021, confirming a loss of momentum in employment.

A key factor behind this weakness has been the government sector. Public payrolls
recorded a 162,000-job reduction in October and another 6,000 in November,
weighing on the overall labor market balance. This adjustment has contributed to a
cautious tone among investors, who are closely monitoring the impact of these
figures on economic growth in the coming months.

Despite this backdrop, monetary policy expectations have remained relatively stable.
The market assigns only a 24.4% probability to a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s
January meeting, suggesting that participants anticipate a cautious stance from the
central bank. This perception has limited upside momentum across both traditional
markets and cryptocurrencies.

Even so, the medium- and long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. Matt
Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes the cryptocurrency could break
its traditional four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs in 2026. Factors
supporting this view include reduced excessive leverage, sustained inflows into spot
Bitcoin ETFs, and structurally lower volatility, reflecting a more mature market.

In conclusion, Bitcoin is navigating an adjustment phase marked by macroeconomic
caution and subdued risk appetite, in a context where labor data and monetary policy
dominate market sentiment. However, beyond short-term volatility, changes in
market structure, increased institutional participation, and stabilizing volatility suggest
that the cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase that could lay the groundwork for
a new bullish cycle in the years ahead.

Zaid Barem / ymm