Bitcoin regains ground, boosted by expectations

26 Kasım 2025

BITCOIN REGAINS GROUND, BOOSTED BY EXPECTATIONS OF A DECEMBER RATE CUT

Market anlaysis written by Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Bitcoin climbed back to the $89,150 area, extending the rebound that began after hitting seven-month lows. Renewed optimism surrounding a possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has been a key catalyst for improving sentiment across cryptocurrency markets. However, the upward move began to lose momentum amid persistent investor caution following the sharp declines seen between October and early November.

The market continues to price in a more accommodative monetary environment, with a probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 9–10 meeting above 77%. This scenario has temporarily revived appetite for risk assets, benefiting Bitcoin and, to a lesser extent, certain altcoins. Still, many of these alternative cryptocurrencies have posted double-digit losses over the past month.

Despite the rebound, crypto-market performance remains lagging behind that of major equity indices, particularly compared to the U.S. technology sector. Stocks linked to artificial intelligence have posted more substantial gains, overshadowing digital assets. This contrast highlights that institutional flows remain selective and that the crypto market is still far from attracting significant capital inflows.

Another factor limiting Bitcoin’s momentum is the negative trend in U.S. physically backed Bitcoin ETFs. These funds have recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows, reflecting reduced institutional exposure and increased demand for liquidity amid global volatility. This behavior has pressured prices and raised doubts about the strength of the current rebound.

Investors are also watching for the release of key economic data, such as producer price inflation, retail sales, and the PCE index, all essential indicators for anticipating the Fed’s final stance in December. The lack of complete labor-market information, due to delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown, has further aggravated uncertainty.

On the innovation front, a relevant development emerged: Klarna announced that it will launch its own stablecoin, KlarnaUSD, in 2026. The U.S. dollar will back the digital currency and will operate on Tempo, a new blockchain designed by Stripe and Paradigm with a focus on fast payments, low fees, and high scalability. This move marks an essential step in integrating traditional financial services with blockchain infrastructure.

The entry of major fintech companies into the crypto ecosystem signals a future of greater adoption and competition in the digital payments sector. Providers like PayPal, Stripe, and now Klarna are moving toward hybrid models in which stablecoins play a fundamental role in enabling low-cost global transactions.

In conclusion, although Bitcoin has posted a meaningful rebound, supported by rising expectations of a rate cut, the market still faces significant challenges, including ETF weakness, moderated institutional flows, and persistent macroeconomic volatility. However, the arrival of new players like Klarna and the development of more efficient blockchain infrastructures offer positive signs of an evolving ecosystem that could strengthen the sector’s medium-term growth.

 

Zaid Barem/ ymm