Bitcoin surpasses expectations with institutional support

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a notable recovery, with Bitcoin leading the bullish momentum after breaking through the resistance level at $109,000. This surge is not the result of mere chance or short-term speculation but rather reflects a fundamental shift in investor sentiment, particularly as data continues to show sustained institutional demand, especially through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). When we observe net inflows totalling $408 million in a single day, with no outflows reported from any of the twelve licensed ETFs in the U.S., it’s a clear sign of growing confidence from institutional players, who are often the cornerstone of stability in any financial asset.

Supporting this perspective is the significant decline in selling pressure from whales and large investors since April. When such pressures ease and major investors maintain steady behavior despite geopolitical tensions, it paints a picture of a disciplined market that transcends short-term fears. Glassnode data further reinforces this view, showing $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits on Bitcoin holdings—evidence that investors see Bitcoin as a store of long-term value rather than just a quick-profit vehicle. That said, the possibility of profit-taking remains ever-present and could trigger swift corrections, especially if sentiment suddenly shifts or if a major regulatory body issues a negative ruling.

In my view, the current momentum in the market is not exclusive to Bitcoin. Other major cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum and Ripple, are also gaining traction. Ethereum’s break above the $2,600 level indicates robust institutional support, particularly from entities engaged in derivatives such as options and futures. This points to a maturing market and investors’ readiness to make long-term bets. Moreover, technical indicators show that bulls are firmly in control, with a clear breakout above key moving averages—boosting the likelihood of further gains toward $2,740 and potentially $2,880, especially if institutional liquidity persists. However, the key risk remains the market’s ability to sustain this momentum without the backing of substantial regulatory reforms that ensure long-term stability.

As for Ripple (XRP), breaking through the strong resistance level at $2.20 marks a significant technical achievement. The token has long been under pressure from legal and regulatory challenges tied to its case with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This new upward trend reflects optimism about the potential for a final settlement—or at least a reduction in legal uncertainty—which could pave the way for further upside, especially with strong technical support from the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. Still, XRP remains particularly vulnerable to volatility due to its complex legal status, making any substantial gains prone to sharp reversals if adverse developments emerge.

Looking at the broader picture, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reaching $3.4 trillion signals a new phase of maturity and investor confidence. Bitcoin’s rise above $109,500 increases the probability of retesting the all-time high at $112,000—or even breaking through it—provided supportive conditions continue, such as ongoing accommodative monetary policy, stable equity markets, and improving global economic data. Additionally, bullish forecasts from major institutions like Standard Chartered—which predicts Bitcoin reaching $135,000 in Q3—underscore the growing belief in Bitcoin’s potential as both a hedge and a store of value.

While the overall outlook appears positive, I believe the market still heavily relies on institutional liquidity and regulatory developments in the U.S., where the SEC plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of crypto assets. On another front, the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a relatively flexible stance on interest rates, which currently supports high-risk assets. However, any sudden shift in that approach—such as yesterday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report—could dampen some of the current optimism and return the market to a more cautious stance.

In conclusion, I see the bullish trend in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market as ongoing, underpinned by strong fundamentals like institutional demand, the evolution of investment tools, and relative macroeconomic stability. Still, the market remains in a sensitive state and depends heavily on the continuity of this support and regulatory clarity. Therefore, the smart investor strikes a balance between optimism for upside potential and caution against the surprises that a highly volatile market like crypto may bring in the days ahead.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) Prices:

The chart shows that the price is moving within a sideways range, bounded by strong resistance at 112,042 and support at 100,518, with a secondary support level at 106,518. A harmonic pattern is also forming—likely an AB=CD pattern—indicating a corrective move that may precede either a bullish breakout or a bearish reversal. Currently, the price is trading at 109,292, near a key minor resistance zone between 109,160 and 109,500, which is likely to play a pivotal role in determining the next directional move.

If the psychological resistance level at 112,042 is breached and the price holds above it, we may witness a new bullish wave targeting the 116,000 level, followed by 120,000 in the medium term, driven by the positive momentum evident in recent price action. However, if the breakout fails and the price drops back below 106,518, there is a risk of a decline toward the 100,000 support level, and potentially further down to the grey zone around 96,361, which coincides with the moving average and serves as a strong technical support area.

That said, the Stochastic indicator is currently in overbought territory (above 80), suggesting a potential for a short-term corrective pullback. Nonetheless, as long as the price remains above 106,518, the overall momentum remains tilted to the upside. The repeated price rebounds from support areas further reinforce signs of buying interest. Therefore, it is advisable to remain cautious at current levels and closely monitor price behaviour around 112,042 to determine the next move—whether it’s a breakout or a reversal.

Support levels: 106,518 – 100,000 – 96,361

Resistance levels: 109,500 – 112,042 – 116,000

Technical Analysis of Ethrium ( ETHUSD ) Prices:

Ethereum is moving within a well-defined ascending channel, bounded by support at S2 = 2,374 and the upper resistance of the channel near R2 = 2,776. The price is currently trading at 2,578, above the minor support at S1 = 2,516 and within the resistance range of R1 = 2,675, indicating solid bullish momentum. The price breaking above the moving average further reinforces the short-term upward trend and signals a shift in market behaviour in favour of buyers.

If the price successfully breaks above the resistance at R1 = 2,675 and holds above it, the upward movement is expected to continue toward R2 = 2,776. A further extension toward the next psychological barrier at 2,900 (H1) is also possible if the upper boundary of the ascending channel is breached. On the other hand, if the price fails to overcome R1 and reversal candlestick patterns or overbought signals emerge, a downward correction could occur, targeting the support level at S1 = 2,516 or even the lower boundary of the channel near S2 = 2,374.

The Stochastic indicator is exiting overbought territory (above 80), suggesting a potential for a short-term correction or a limited pullback before the bullish trend resumes. Nevertheless, as long as the price remains within the ascending channel, the overall bias remains positive—unless a clear break below S2 occurs. Therefore, it’s advisable to monitor price behaviour closely at the key pivot levels (R1 and S1) to identify optimal entry points, especially amid the current strong liquidity that could fuel sharp moves in either direction.

Support levels: 2,516 – 2,374 – 2,234 – Resistance levels: 2,675 – 2,776 – 2,900