Dollar climbed to three-week high…

20 Kasım 2025

Market analysis on behalf of Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital.

Dollar Climbed To Three-Week High As December Rate-Cut Odds Decline

The dollar rose on Thursday, reaching a three-week high after the BLS canceled the October job figures release and the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes signaled growing reluctance among policymakers to deliver another rate cut this year. Market pricing for a December cut fell sharply from 50% to roughly 33%, offering support to the greenback and helping anchor US Treasury yields, with the 10-year holding steady above 4.13%.

The minutes revealed a clear split within the FOMC over the balance of risks facing the US economy. Participants diverged sharply on what should come next. Several officials noted that further easing in December could be appropriate if economic conditions weaken. However, others argued that no additional cuts were likely needed for the remainder of 2025. This aligns with Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting message, in which he emphasized that another reduction was not a “foregone conclusion.”

All eyes now turn to today’s nonfarm payrolls report, which has the potential to reshape expectations once again. Weaker-than-expected numbers would likely revive bets on a December cut and weigh on both the dollar and treasury yields. Conversely, a resilient labor market would strengthen the case for a hold and could provide an additional boost to both.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm