Dollar steady as investors await shutdown resolution

11 November 2025

Today market analysis on behalf of Bas Kooijman is the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A

 

The dollar index held steady on Tuesday, as markets awaited confirmation that the US government shutdown could soon end. The Senate advanced a bill late Monday to restore funding for federal agencies, narrowly reaching the 60-vote threshold needed. House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled that a vote could take place as early as Wednesday before sending the measure to President Donald Trump for approval.

Improved risk sentiment helped lift US Treasury yields across all maturities, with the 10-year note holding firmly above 4.10%, reflecting cautious optimism that the shutdown’s resolution could ease economic uncertainty. Still, any delay or political setback could drag both yields and the dollar down.

Looking ahead, if the government shutdown is resolved, key economic data releases could resume, offering fresh insights into the health of the economy and potentially recalibrating rate-cut expectations. The latter could generate some volatility on the market. In the meantime, markets assign a 64% probability for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting.