Gold above $5,100: Will Trump’s tariffs and…

23 Şubat 2026

Gold Above $5,100: Will Trump’s Tariffs and the Geneva Talks Push the Yellow Metal to New All-Time Highs?

Written by: Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com – MENA

Gold is trading in $5,135 per ounce, after touching $5,174 in early Asian trading, in a move that clearly reflects a strong return of safe-haven flows. In my view, this rally cannot be separated from the tense geopolitical and economic environment that has led to a global repricing of risk—particularly with U.S. President Donald Trump reverting to an escalatory tariff strategy, alongside markets closely monitoring the upcoming U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva. We are not facing a market reacting to a single headline, but rather one reassessing an entire risk framework.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down certain tariffs did not eliminate uncertainty. Trump quickly resorted to other legal mechanisms under the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new tariffs, raising them gradually while maintaining national security-related duties. In my opinion, this political approach reinforces what I call a “fog premium” — an added price premium investors assign to safe-haven assets when global trade rules become unstable. Gold, by its nature, benefits from such a premium, as it carries no sovereign liability and is not directly exposed to supply chains or tariff barriers. Therefore, I believe the $5,000 level is no longer a rigid psychological ceiling, but rather a new structural price floor under this policy trajectory.

Meanwhile, markets are closely watching the U.S.–Iran negotiations in Geneva. While any diplomatic breakthrough could temporarily reduce the geopolitical risk premium, my experience in market analysis suggests that such effects tend to be short-lived unless they translate into a comprehensive and lasting agreement. Threats of limited strikes—even when accompanied by talk of a potential deal—keep uncertainty elevated. As a result, I expect any gold pullback driven by positive headlines from Geneva to be limited and met with renewed buying interest on dips.

More important than short-term developments, however, is the structural shift in how major institutions view gold. JPMorgan Chase has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $5,055 to $6,300, while outlining a scenario that could see prices reach $8,000. This is not merely a numerical adjustment, but an acknowledgment of a long-term cycle. The recent 11% correction—compared to historic declines in 1980 and 1983—does not alter the broader trend. In my assessment, that pullback was healthy, flushing out short-term speculation while leaving long-term investors firmly positioned.

The discussion about gold potentially reaching the $8,000–$8,500 range if household allocations rise from around 3% to 4.6% highlights a crucial reality: supply remains structurally constrained. New mine production is limited, and central banks continue accumulating reserves. Even a modest increase in retail investment demand could create significant price dislocations. I firmly believe gold is transitioning from being a tactical hedge to becoming a core portfolio asset.

This shift aligns with calls within major institutions such as Morgan Stanley to reconsider the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio model, replacing it with a 60/20/20 allocation that includes 20% in precious metals. In my view, this reflects growing recognition that bonds no longer provide the same protection in an environment characterized by elevated debt levels and inflation volatility. As households begin substituting “duration risk” in bonds with physical gold or gold-backed funds, we are witnessing a historic rebalancing between yield generation and purchasing power protection.

The erosion of purchasing power remains the deeper driver of this transformation. The expanding U.S. government debt burden places policymakers in a difficult position, where inflation becomes an implicit tool to manage the real weight of debt. Even if consumer price indices moderate, monetary supply pressures persist. From my perspective, gold prices are discounting these future risks—not merely reacting to monthly data releases. Therefore, while producer price data and Federal Reserve decisions are important in the short term, they do not override the broader structural narrative.

Gold’s more than 170% rise over the past five years has not been accidental. We are living in an era of geopolitical fragmentation—from the Russia–Ukraine war to intensifying trade tensions—prompting central banks to double net purchases and diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar following the freezing of Russian assets. This official-sector behavior provides the market with a durable demand base. In my analysis, as long as central banks remain net buyers, sharp declines are likely to be absorbed by sovereign demand.

Based on all these factors, I expect the broader trend to remain upward over the medium to long term, albeit with sharp short-term volatility. We may see retracements toward the $4,976–$5,090 range if tensions ease or inflation data soften, but I would view such moves as opportunities to rebuild positions. A move toward $6,500 within the next two years appears increasingly plausible, while the $8,000 target would depend on an acceleration in portfolio reallocation and stronger household investment demand.

In conclusion, gold is no longer moving purely out of fear, but as part of a structural re-evaluation of its role within the global financial system. We are transitioning from “crisis hedging” to “strategic long-term positioning.” Amid ongoing tariff tensions, geopolitical opacity, rising debt burdens, and persistent inflation risks, I believe the yellow metal remains in the middle—not at the end—of its long-term upward trajectory.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm