Gold falls below USD 4,100; CPI in focus

24 October 2025

Today market analysis on behalf of Bas Kooijman is the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A

Gold retreated below USD 4,100 per ounce on Friday, resuming its decline after a brief rebound yesterday. The metal saw an end to its nine-week winning streak this week as a wave of profit-taking hit the market after the asset repeatedly set fresh record highs. Earlier in the week, bullion suffered a steep intraday drop, a move exacerbated by the largest single-day outflow from gold-backed ETFs in five months.

Despite the correction, the outlook remains constructive with investors positioning for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. All eyes now turn to the delayed US CPI release due later today, a key input for the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Markets have nearly fully priced a 25-basis-point cut next week and still expect another move in December, leaving monetary policy as an important driver for gold into month-end. Signs of easing inflationary pressures could further raise expectations of a more dovish stance from the Fed in 2026, which could benefit non-yielding assets like the precious metal.

Geopolitical risks, including fresh US sanctions on Russia and ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to provide a support layer to the safe-haven asset, which could help limit further downside. At the same time, uncertainty over trade frictions between the US and China could contribute to the volatility ahead of next week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm