Gold pulls back from near USD 4,500/Oz

7 Ocak 2026

Gold Pulls Back From Near USD 4,500/Oz: Markets Turn Cautious Despite Persistent Safe-Haven Demand

Written by Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com

Gold prices have risen for a third consecutive session and moved close to the USD 4,500/oz level during the Asian session, before retreating modestly. This price action indicates that the broader uptrend remains intact, supported by macroeconomic and geopolitical fundamentals. However, as prices approach key psychological levels and move closer to the historical high, technical corrective pressure has become more evident.

Gold’s recent advance has been reinforced by a relatively stable global economic backdrop, rather than a sharp downturn. Specifically, recent U.S. economic data suggest that growth is slowing but not yet weakening materially. The December ISM Manufacturing PMI stood at 47.9, remaining below the 50 threshold and signaling continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, though the degree of weakness does not point to a deep recession. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI has remained in expansionary territory, indicating that the services sector continues to show relative resilience.

This backdrop has tilted market expectations toward a scenario in which monetary policy remains restrictive for longer into early 2026, rather than shifting rapidly toward aggressive easing. In an environment where policy uncertainty persists, gold continues to be viewed as an effective hedge against interest-rate risk and economic-cycle volatility, thereby sustaining underlying demand.

Beyond macroeconomic factors, central bank gold purchases remain a key pillar supporting the metal’s medium-term trend. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought a net approximately 45 tonnes of gold in November, lifting total net purchases from the start of the year through November to around 297 tonnes. These figures suggest that gold accumulation is not opportunistic, but rather reflects a long-term strategy to diversify foreign-exchange reserves and reduce reliance on fiat currencies, amid an increasingly fragmented global financial order. The steady participation of central banks has helped limit the depth of gold’s pullbacks, even during periods of broader market volatility.

In addition, geopolitical risks and concerns over energy security have returned to the forefront of investor attention, particularly following the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s president. This development has not only heightened political instability in Latin America, but has also raised concerns about global energy supply, given that Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. As geopolitical shocks risk feeding into inflation through higher energy prices, safe-haven demand has been reactivated, allowing gold to continue benefiting as a defensive asset against systemic risks.

That said, as gold prices push higher and move closer to the record high around USD 4,550/oz, the market is unlikely to avoid necessary technical corrections. The USD 4,500/oz level itself is currently acting as a significant psychological barrier. Gold’s inability to decisively break above this zone suggests that new buying interest has become more cautious, as investors weigh profit-taking against further exposure to the ongoing uptrend.

This week, markets will face a series of key U.S. economic data releases, including indicators related to economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Should these data show that the U.S. economy remains resilient, or that inflation proves more persistent than expected, rate-cut expectations could be pushed back. In that scenario, the U.S. dollar may strengthen and U.S. Treasury yields could come under renewed upward pressure, potentially disrupting gold’s short-term appeal. Conversely, if the data confirm a clear cooling in both growth and inflation, gold could quickly regain momentum and return to testing its historical highs.

Overall, gold’s medium-term trend remains supported by central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and defensive positioning, while technical pullbacks may emerge as prices approach key psychological levels and historical highs. This suggests that gold may enter a phase of re-accumulation or controlled consolidation, rather than a trend reversal. Only if these fundamental supports weaken simultaneously would the medium-term bullish outlook for gold be meaningfully called into question.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm