Gold edges lower, rising yields maintain pressure

12 May 2026

Today’s markets analysis on behalf of Zaheer Anwari – Co-Founder & CEO at The Revacy Fund

Gold edged lower on Tuesday as rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar kept pressure on the metal. Fading hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement have also kept oil prices elevated, reinforcing inflation concerns and strengthening the view that central banks may need to remain cautious for longer. That combination continues to support bond yields and leaves non-yielding assets such as gold under pressure.

The other side of this is policy. Markets have increasingly moved towards the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates unchanged this year, while in Europe stronger inflation data, particularly out of Germany, has added to expectations that the ECB may need to keep a tighter stance for longer. German inflation was confirmed at 2.9% in April, reinforcing that concern.

Looking ahead, U.S. inflation data will be important for the next move in yields and, by extension, gold. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver through their impact on oil and inflation expectations, while ongoing central-bank buying continues to provide longer-term support for bullion.

From a portfolio perspective, we remain flat on both gold and oil as they continue to trade within their ranges. Gold continues to find support at last year’s high, but if breaks above the current all-time high that would signal the start of the next bull run and the point at which we would begin buying back into gold, with $10,000 as the next long-term target. In oil, a break above the March high would open the way for a move towards $140 and the next key resistance level. For now, we continue to monitor both, with risk allocation focused on a rising stock market.

 

Source: Zaid Barem / ymm