Bitcoin price forecast: October could be the best

1 Ekim 2024

Bitcoin Price Forecast: October Could Be the Best Month Since 2013

Today’s market analysis on behalf of Rania Gule Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Bitcoin prices have dropped to start trading today, Tuesday, at $63,673.70, despite hints from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about a possible interest rate cut later this year. History shows that low-interest-rate environments often support the rise of cryptocurrencies. However, this optimism has not yet been reflected in the market, as Bitcoin has seen a decline of 3.5% over the past 24 hours, alongside a noticeable drop in other major currencies like Ethereum and Solana. It seems to me that investors are waiting for additional economic data before making their decisions, leading to continued pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

Despite this temporary setback, the potential for future interest rate cuts could be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s rise. In my view, if central banks take further easing measures, this could contribute to increased global liquidity and stimulate demand for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Similar scenarios in the past have translated into significant increases in Bitcoin prices, reinforcing the expectation that the market may witness a strong upward wave with more signs of interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin has achieved gains of at least 9% during September, defying the historical trend that indicates negative returns during this month. In my opinion, this comes amidst only two previous cases of positive growth since 2013, raising questions about the cryptocurrency’s ability to overcome challenges associated with seasonal price changes. This positive performance in September could put Bitcoin in a stronger position entering October, traditionally a more active month for the currency, as it has seen gains in 60% of its years since 2013.

From my perspective, the market currently experiences a range of conditions that support this bullish trend, including accommodative global monetary policies, which represent a favourable climate for investments in cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the weakness of the Japanese yen and increasing institutional investments in Bitcoin enhance the chances of continued upward movement. The interaction between these factors shows positive sentiment in the market, especially in light of the upcoming U.S. elections that could influence investor decisions. Accordingly, I expect Bitcoin’s price movement to remain optimistic, especially given the bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies in the United States.

In my view, seasonality is an important factor in market movements, as data shows that Bitcoin achieved an average value exhaustion rate of 6.56% in September, prompting traders to take negative positions. However, current trends indicate the possibility of rising prices, as external factors, such as monetary policies, allow Bitcoin to withstand historical pressures. There seems to be an increasing desire among investors to rebuild their positions, focusing on buying during dips.

Cryptocurrencies are closely tied to traditional assets such as the S&P 500 index, reflecting the extent to which the overall economic situation affects cryptocurrency prices. Additionally, the positive sentiment leaning toward rising prices is reinforced by increasing political support for cryptocurrencies, indicating a potential shift in how lawmakers handle this sector.

Therefore, I find that what is happening in the Bitcoin market is not merely a reflection of supply and demand but rather a result of a complex interaction between monetary policies, political stances, and seasonal trends. These factors could change how investors think about Bitcoin, as shifts in sentiment and economic fundamentals can lead to significant price movements. I believe the market’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months requires close monitoring of global developments, especially with the approaching elections in the United States.

Bitcoin’s ability to reach $70,000 largely depends on the continuation of these positive catalysts. In my opinion, if current conditions persist, the expected recovery could witness new record levels. However, investors must remain aware of the risks associated with this volatile market and be prepared to face potential challenges that may hinder Bitcoin’s path toward achieving its price goals. Achieving gains in September reflects only the beginning of what could be a strong bullish cycle in the coming months, with the integration of technical and fundamental factors enhancing Bitcoin’s chances of succeeding as a primary investment asset.

 

Zaid Barem / YMM