Exclusive Forecast: Gold Price at $2,461

Today’s market analysis on behalf of Rania Gule Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Exclusive Forecast: Gold Price at $2,461 as Focus Shifts to U.S. Inflation Data

Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to recover most of its weekly losses following gains on Thursday, trading at $2,463 on Tuesday after reaching a monthly peak of $2,475. Despite this recovery, the price hasn’t fully overcome its recent difficulties. The gold market has faced substantial volatility over the past week, with prices dropping below $50,000 on Monday.

China’s anticipated liquidity injection could boost gold and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, the People’s Bank of China increases liquidity in August, as seen on August 11, 2020, August 31, 2021, 2022, and August 28, 2023. However, market activity has been subdued after a modest liquidity increase in June. It is expected that China may hold off on liquidity measures until after the Federal Reserve potentially cuts interest rates, possibly on September 18, which could increase global liquidity and support gold prices.

Geopolitical developments are also influencing the market. Russian President Putin has legalised Bitcoin mining, reflecting Russia’s attempt to keep pace with the U.S. China currently controls 57% of global Bitcoin mining, while the U.S. controls 35%. These developments will likely support the market and bolster Bitcoin prices in the medium to long term, countering bearish market predictions.

Bitcoin is currently experiencing typical consolidation following a halving event, a pattern that often precedes significant price increases. Combined with anticipated liquidity injections from China, the market seems poised for a potential rally. Analysis of Bitcoin’s blockchain holdings indicates minimal movement, suggesting accumulation, which typically precedes major market upswings.

In the past month, starting July 12, 2024, 99,308 BTC, worth $5.96 billion, were withdrawn from exchanges. Currently, central exchanges hold 2,679,880 BTC, approximately valued at $161 billion as of August 11. These figures show reserves have reached their lowest level since Bitcoin’s price downturn on November 19, 2018.

Since then, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges peaked at 3,374,491 BTC on July 23, 2021, before gradually decreasing to 3,356,772 BTC on June 6, 2022. Following the Terra and FTX collapse, reserves dropped by 20.16% and have stabilized at 2.77 million BTC. The ongoing decrease in Bitcoin and Ethereum reserves on centralized exchanges indicates a growing preference for non-custodial solutions, which is a positive trend for security and scarcity. As users prioritize self-custody, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin become less liquid on exchanges, enhancing their scarcity and value over time, and supporting decentralized finance (DeFi) principles.

This period might present a good opportunity for Bitcoin investors to benefit from the current market conditions. Expectations of increased liquidity from China, growing global recognition of Bitcoin as a significant investment asset, and the new Russian regulations all suggest potential value increases for Bitcoin. The anticipated rise in global liquidity, combined with reduced exchange reserves, positions Bitcoin well for value appreciation, making it an attractive long-term investment.