Gold firm as investors weigh geopolitical risk

5 March 2026

 Gold firm as investors weigh geopolitical risk and Hawkish Macro Signals

Today market analysis on behalf of Bas Kooijman is the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A

Gold remained relatively firm after its correction, consolidating above the USD 5,100 level as markets balance persistent geopolitical risk against more cautious monetary policy expectations and potentially delayed interest rate cuts.

The precious metal continues to draw support from heightened global tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, where increased risks fuel more demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

At the same time, rising energy prices linked to the disruptions in the Middle East are feeding into global inflation concerns, prompting investors to reassess expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Combined with the recent better-than-expected economic data, forecasts are leaning toward only one rate cut this year. This shift has supported Treasury yields and limited gold’s upside momentum despite ongoing safe-haven demand.

Moreover, attention turns to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, which could prove pivotal in shaping expectations for Fed monetary policy. Strong labour market data may reinforce the hawkish repricing, while signs of cooling activity could fuel support for bullion.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm