Gold may lose middle east geopolitical risk

9 Aralık 2024

Gold may lose middle east geopolitical risk premium after Syria’s historic turnaround

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Gold is up 0.7% today, reclaiming the $2,650 per ounce level while still trying to shake off a two-week sideways trend.

Gold’s gains today come after the People’s Bank of China resumed bullion accumulation after a six-month hiatus. The central bank’s continued bullion buildup could offset the impact of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the strength of the U.S. economy.

The People’s Bank of China’s bullion holdings rose to 72.96 million ounces at the end of November from 72.80 million in October, data released over the weekend showed.

The bullion buying spree that lasted for 18 consecutive months and ended last May was the main bullish catalyst for gold despite the very high rates of interest especially in the United States.

This combination of bullion buying and the gradual trend of lower interest rates around the world may revive the bullish trend in gold prices.

On the other hand, the continued flow of better-than-expected data from the United States, which strengthens the dollar, should make the continuation of the bullion trend more difficult.

Last week, the labor market showed its resilience in non-farm payrolls data as well as wage growth and job openings. While the outcome of last week’s data did not lead to a fundamental change in the market’s expectations for a rate cut in December and January, the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in January remains at 26% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Also, away from the United States, the structural changes witnessed in the Middle East may reduce the geopolitical risk premium that the yellow metal has been benefiting from as a safe haven. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Iran has become less capable than ever of threatening Israel. Syrian territory was a lifeline for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the latter is now besieged after being Iran’s key arm in the region.

 

Zaid Barem / YMM