Gold hold steady even amid higher treasury bond yield

10 Aralık 2025

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

Gold continues to hold above $4200 / Oz in spot trading, supported by a cautious market tone ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision.

Investors are turning their attention to Jerome Powell’s remarks, seeing them as the deciding factor for whether this calm holds or breaks.

According to recent labor indicators, yesterday’s JOLTS job openings came in better than expected and the ADP Weekly Employment Change turned positive for the first time in four weeks. These reports are not central to policy makers since JOLTS is lagged and weekly ADP lacks significance, but traders tend to react tactically to any sign of labor resilience before a major Fed event.

The immediate market impact was tempered, yet the figures added a layer of hesitation to today’s setup.

Gold’s ability to stay above 4200 despite rising yields is notable. The ten-year Treasury yield climbed for the fourth consecutive day as of yesterday, a move that would normally pressure bullion.

Resilience in gold came as uncertainty in the bond market rose again, with the ICE BofAML Index (MOVE) inching higher for the third day after nearing its lowest levels since 2021. The combination of firm yields, and growing volatility often precedes Fed meetings and tends to keep traders in defensive positioning.

In another word, higher Treasury market uncertainty makes higher yield effect on gold less significant.

This makes Powell’s tone the central variable. A dovish signal could weaken the dollar and temper yield expectations, giving gold fresh support and possibly drawing momentum buying back into the metal.

A hawkish tilt, however, would risk undoing gold’s stability by reinforcing higher rate premiums and strengthening the dollar at a sensitive moment.

The reaction is likely to be immediate given how tightly gold has been coiling around the 4200 level.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning an 87 percent probability to a 25-basis point cut today and nearly the same odds for another cut in January. These expectations already anchor much of the current pricing, which means the real movement will depend on Powell’s narrative.

If he reinforces the path the market has already priced, gold’s range may hold. If he challenges it, the metal could lose its footing or extend its resilience into a broader move.

 

Zaid Barem / ymm