Bitcoin stabilizes below $70,000

25 Ekim 2024

Bitcoin stabilizes below $70,000. Impact of election uncertainty and interest rates.

Market comment On behalf of Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com

The price of Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $68,800, approaching the psychological level of $70,000, but failed to surpass it due to a combination of economic and political factors. Key reasons behind its stalled progress include uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and high interest rates. These elements have created a cautious atmosphere among investors, who prefer to wait before making significant market decisions.

The potential victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 elections is drawing particular attention in cryptocurrency markets. During his campaign, Trump promised a more favorable regulatory framework for the sector, which could lead to greater institutional and regulatory adoption of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. However, traders are also concerned about the possible macroeconomic implications of his policies. A government focused on boosting economic growth through stimulus could increase inflation levels, indirectly affecting the crypto market.

One of the main effects of rising inflation would be strengthening the U.S. dollar. A strong dollar, while generally positive for the economy, tends to reduce the appeal of speculative assets like Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies, which do not generate income or dividends, rely heavily on investors’ perception of value. Demand for these alternative assets typically decreases when the dollar strengthens, putting downward pressure on their prices.

Additionally, high interest rates also play a crucial role in this scenario. In a high-rate environment, investors tend to prefer lower-risk assets that offer yields, such as U.S. Treasury bonds. This reduces the appeal of holding Bitcoin, an asset that pays no interest and is more volatile. Traders are closely monitoring any moves by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, as this could directly influence the direction of the crypto market.

A small interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected by November, which could offer temporary relief for Bitcoin. Reducing rates could drive investors to seek higher-risk assets for better returns, benefiting Bitcoin. However, any positive effect could be limited if political uncertainties and macroeconomic concerns persist, maintaining market volatility.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent stabilization below $70,000 reflects the complex economic and political environment. The combination of U.S. election uncertainty, the potential strengthening of the dollar, and high interest rates has led to investor caution. While a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could offer some short-term relief, Bitcoin’s market direction will ultimately depend on the outcome of the 2024 elections and future macroeconomic policies.

 

Zaid Barem / YMM